Mexico safety is near the top of the list of concerns for relocation to Mexico.  Is it safe to live as an expat in Mexico? The short answer overwhelmingly is, YES! Virtually all the expats living in Mexico are quite safe and comfortable with their cities or towns of choice. Why? Because they have chosen to live in areas that are safe to live within Mexico.

Expats make relocation choices with similar criteria to what you would consider with any move. People decide what they want from their Mexico experience, location, climate, cost of living, a beach, the mountains, culture, safety etc. Expats research the cities and places to avoid, settle on a safe town, a safe neighborhood, and start networking with a community of expats in the area they are headed to. These are some of the primary factors of how and why expats are safe in Mexico!

Where are the safest places in Mexico expats live?

It is estimated as of 2019, there are over 1.2 million expats from the U.S. and Canada currently living in or retired to Mexico. Canadians count for approximately 6,000 of those expat numbers, but there are another 125,000+ Canadians spending at least part of the year in Mexico annually, according to Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. An expat in Mexico is defined as someone who has legal temporary or permanent residency status in Mexico.

If we were to include regular returning snowbirds, the number is quite a bit higher. Americans and Canadians can travel back and forth on a Mexico tourist visa good for 180 days-and do it year after year.  You can even leave the country for just a few days and return with a renewed visa, good for another 6 months. 

These numbers also do not include thousands of undocumented expat residents in Mexico. We are being conservative with the 1.2 million number and it continues to grow every year. Here’s the list of cities and towns with the largest expat populations in Mexico (excluding border towns):

1. Guadalajara, Lake Chapala, Ajijic, Jalisco (the largest per-capita population of expats-around Lake Chapala)
2. Mexico City, DF
3. Playa del Carmen and Riviera Maya (includes Cancun, Cozumel and Tulum), Quintana Roo
4. Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco
5. Merida, Yucatan
6. San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato
7. Los Cabos and Baja California Sur, (includes Todos Santos, Los Barriles and La Paz)
8. Mazatlan, Sinaloa
9. Cuernavaca, Morelos
10. Ensenada, Baja California

Here is a complete state by state breakdown of the annual reported total homicides in Mexico from 2015-2020. Ranked from most to least by state.  This is also a great link to track general crime statistics by state in Mexico.  The cities and towns we highlight and recommend are indeed safe, there are also parts of Mexico that are not safe, remote regions and known hot spots raise your personal risks as they would in any other country.

What is Mexico safety in lifestyle like as an expat?

First, expats typically have done their homework and hopefully have spent some time in the town or city they are planning to live in. This is the most common route for expats in Mexico, they fall in love with the place, and start looking into issues like safety, cost of living etc. before making those choices of a place to settle in Mexico.

For the majority of expats living in Mexico it is a very rewarding and enriching experience.  Most expats get more from the move than expected, which has been the case for myself and many others I have met over the years.  Most expats are initially drawn to Mexico for the mild climate or beaches and lower cost of living, and Mexico delivers!  What most people don’t expect is to fall in love with the culture and the people!

After some initial culture shock, most expats come to appreciate the “manana” culture and more relaxed approach to life. Although an adjustment, the escape from a hectic life is one of the other big reasons people are attracted to Mexico. A slower pace of life, beautiful people, new friends, amazing food, art and history and less consumerism have been a few things I personally didn’t expect to be positive highlights of our Mexico adventure!

Mexico Crime Stats: Hard truths, statistics, and safe living tips from a 12-year expat resident of Mexico.

It is really going to happen! You have shifted from planning to execution, YOU are moving to Mexico. The vision of your adventure is taking shape. Naturally, you start sharing your exciting plans with friends and family! Then your bubble bursts. Some of the initial feedback you get from your typical media-influenced American or Canadian friends goes something like this:

“You must be joking!” “Are you crazy?” “Have you seen Narcos? You could be killed or kidnapped!” “Mexico is dangerous.”

A cautionary comment somewhere along those lines. We all have concerned friends and family when you share the Mexico move news, right or wrong, the headlines and media coverage show Mexico to be a generally dangerous place! As a full-time resident, like other good people in Mexico, we also cringe at the news of violence, it makes the local and regional news in Mexico in graphic fashion. Indeed, media coverage, non-fiction books, movies and TV have presented provocative portraits of Mexican cartel violence in North America.

If you have been paying attention, this problem is not just in Mexico. Yes, those bad guys are seriously dangerous with little regard for human life.  The proof is shown in the rising numbers and it also coincides with the rise in human trafficking; mostly flowing through Mexico from Latin America.  Refugees and potential immigrants looking for a better life, all must travel through Mexico to reach the U.S. or Canada.

Mexico Crime: Bad News On the Murder Trends in Mexico

The Mexico Cartel Factor

The cartel is an overt (yet rarely openly spoken about) part of Mexican society. Like a big corporation, they are in big business with most of the product demand coming from the US and Canadian markets-they deliver. They also support the local economies in Mexico, where product may come from or passes through on it’s way north. Cartels sell in tourist locations where, again, the demand from foreign tourists is “high.” People on 1-2 week benders, who are doing things in Mexico they would not consider doing at home. See: Popularity of AI resorts – unlimited everything all the time.

“The Cartel” is part of all North American countries; U.S. and Canada included, they are more visible and comfortable doing business in Mexico, where they wield real political influence. There is a much lower-profile north of the border, where they are higher up in the supply chain. 

Violent people who sell drugs, do human trafficking, and carry big guns are dangerous characters to associate with. They also kill each other regularly in territorial skirmishes and all-out turf wars. A lot of the frightening murder statistics come from that category, the crass silver lining.

Sadly, another large part of the casualties come from human trafficking through the southern borders of Mexico. This is now estimated to be a $150 billion annual enterprise for cartels. The murder statistics continue to rise as battles for territory and human trafficking have expanded. That is the harsh reality of murder in Mexico.

Mexico cartels are dangerous, no doubt. So, if you get involved with those folks in Mexico-or anywhere for that matter, well then, your friends may be right, you may be crazy too!

The Good News About Safely Retiring in Mexico!

Before you start looking into another country to move or retire to, let us interject some common sense and reality into these frightening murder statistics. Statistics is an interesting discipline, especially when we segment the data to tell the actual Mexico expat story. When you isolate tourists and expats in the equation, Mexico starts looking safer than traveling to Orlando, Florida or a life in most of American Suburbia. As an expat or tourist with common sense and no connection to illegal activities or cartel affiliation, your odds of being murdered in Mexico fall somewhere between getting struck by lightning and winning the Powerball lottery! The following U.S. State Department graphic and statistics account for any Americans who died in Mexico 2017-18 – not just homicides. Between June 2017 and June 2018, Mexico had more than 35 million US visitors and 238 of them died, 76 of them were homicides. Of those 76 deaths, guess what? According to the U.S. State Department, most of those victims were involved in drug or human trafficking themselves! It is notable that most of them occurred in U.S. border towns. The others include crimes of passion and a few that were in the wrong place at the wrong time. You can get into more details at the U.S. Department of State website. The cartel targets expats and tourists for marketing and sales, NOT violence!  Just like big pharma, they want to keep you, the customer, alive for as long as possible to consume their perishable products.

Make no mistake, common sense and awareness go just as far in Mexico as anywhere else in the world!

8 Personal Safety Tips for Life in Mexico (beyond not signing up with the cartel):

1. Choose a safe neighborhood to live in.
2. Secure your home: CCTV,walls, gates, lock doors and windows, add window bars or a dog if needed-crimes of opportunity are more common than violence in Mexico.
3. Avoid known areas for drug deals and bad neighborhoods.
4. Don’t buy street drugs. Mexican pharmacies actually offer more than U.S. See medical/dental tourism.
5. Do not drive on dark desert highways at night.
6. Get home at a decent hour, not much good happens after 2am. 11pm is late for me!
7. Make friends with other expats.
8. Pay attention to your surroundings.

Bad, random things happen to people all the time in all parts of the world. We can simply do our best to minimize and mitigate risk that comes with life on this planet. From my personal perspective and the vast majority of expats actually here, there are safe places to live in Mexico. It is arguably less violent than the U.S. when you take all violent crime into account.

Mexico Crime Stats vs USA

Fun Fact!  The United States has 88 guns per 100 people.

Suffice it to say, “nobody’s perfect.” Clearly there are dangerous places within any country in the world. Where you decide to live, the social groups you spend time with, and the areas you visit frequently in those countries will determine how safe you are! The same holds true for the U.S.A., Canada, Europe, Asia and Mexico. For example, as an American,  I am not going to cruise the south side of Chicago after midnight or take a shortcut down a dark alley in New Orleans.

Mexico has over 761,606 square miles and the majority of that territory is peaceful territory where locals and expats live and tourists visit.  In fact, Americans and Canadians are less likely to face violence in Mexico than a lot of U.S. cities, especially in Mexico’s most popular travel and expat destinations. See my safety tips for Mexico-above, use them, choose a safe place to live and you will be as safe in Mexico as any other safe part of other countries!  I hope to see you on the safe side of Mexico! Get our free guide to living in Mexico here.

IN THE MEANTIME: Please ALWAYS refer to the U.S. State Department for the most current safety conditions and travel warnings in Mexico. US State Department Travel Advisories for Mexico. Make Mexico Happen!

Article resources:

1. México Safety BBC article
2. NYT 2018 Maya Riveria Safety
3. Mexico Crime Reports 2020
4. Mexico vs USA Crime Stats
5. Mexico Tourists Dangers
6. Newsweek Human trafficking in Mexico
7. Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade

A number of popular models of Android phones now come enabled with technology intended to allow for mobile payments with platforms like Google Wallet.  But unfortunately, the savvy hacker can turn the technology intended to allow for mobile payments into a mobile card scanner.

In fact, they tested the app right on stage by using a Nexus S phone to read the hosts own contactless Visa card onstage, which was in his wallet, inside his pocket.  The presenter then used the phone to relay the data a moment later to a point-of-sale device, where it was accepted as a payment.   In a matter of minutes, he was able to steel his own credit card information and make a purchase.

More than 100 million contactless credit cards are currently in circulation.  Brands like PayPass, Zip, payWave, and ExpressPay by Visa, MasterCard, Discover and American Express, are susceptible.   So combining vulnerable credit cards with cell phone technology that can scan those credit cards, pick pocketing has never been easier.

The Good News

The good news is that a wallet with a piece of metal that blocks your credit cards stops the scanners from working.  There are several companies on the market today offering hack proof wallets such as Identity Stronghold or Magellan’s.   If your really handy, you can make your own hack proof wallet!

If you listen to all the news headlines about Mexico’s drug war you might believe the whole country is a drug war zone; then again you probably wouldn’t be reading this, so congratulations on over coming the negative press and doing your own research on Mexico safety! You are smarter than the average person and you are looking beyond the headlines and digging a little deeper into the statistics. Yes, Mexico is a safe place to live.

The facts, when you take the entire country of Mexico into account, paint a much different picture of how safe it is in Mexico.

The facts are that Mexico is not a gun culture like the US. Violent gun crimes and other violent crimes are not nearly as common in Mexico as they are in the US.  When it comes to guns, it is very difficult to buy a gun in Mexico as a citizen and you must have good reason to own one which requires a special permit.  

There is no denying the staggering cartel related deaths that happen in Mexico, but make no mistake, those issues are HIGHLY concentrated in the border zones and a few “hot spots” within Mexico.  The murders that are happening are also HIGHLY concentrated within the cartels themselves. Yes, innocent people get killed in Mexico too, when bullets fly, people die.

The cartels also know that killing tourists and expats is very bad for business and so does the Mexican government. They are reacting much faster and sending more resources and law enforcement to areas that have flare ups and it is working to curtail that violence.

Cartels are at war with each other and their government; they are killing themselves off, so this is a good case for natural selection as well.

How dangerous are parts of Mexico right now in 2020?

If you want to compare U.S. and Mexico Crime Statistics you can check this link: https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Mexico/United-States/Crime#

Suffice it to say, “nobody’s perfect.”

Mexico has over 761,606 square miles and the majority of that territory is peaceful territory where locals and expats  live and tourists visit.  In fact, Americans and Canadians are less likely to face violence in Mexico than a lot of U.S. cities, especially in Mexico’s most popular travel and expat destinations.  When you look at the actual number of Americans or Canadians killed in Mexico annually, the statistics back up the safety.  It’s safer than Orlando…don’t take the kids to Disneyworld!

IN THE MEANTIME: Please ALWAYS refer to the U.S. State Department for the most current safety conditions in Mexico. US State Department Travel Advisories for Mexico Nearly all violent murders in Mexico have occurred, and are occurring, along the U.S. / Mexico border and Northern Pacific Coast regions like Sinaloa, Michoacan and Guerrero (Acapulco, Sinaloa and Nuevo Leon), where the drug trafficking is still occurring. Ciudad Juarez, just across from El Paso in Texas remains another hot zone. Ironically, El Paso is one of the safest cities in the U.S.

Mexico Crime Statistics

2016 US State Department Reports: The U.S. State Department reports that 75 Americans of the over 31 million who visited Mexico in 2016 were murdered, which is a rate of 2.25 of 100,000 visitors. It is not clear if these Americans were, or were not, connected to drug related activities but we can reach some fairly compelling circumstantial conclusions based on the majority of them occurring in known “hot zones” along the border or other notorious locations.

US State Department Travel Advisories for Mexico

All of our “best places to live in Mexico” and “best places to visit in Mexico“, in terms of it is safe to travel in mexico, working or living, are not on the US State Department warning locations list.

Regarding Mexico safety scores as of February, 2019 The US State Department warns against “non-essential travel” to just 5 of Mexico’s 31 states (Colima , Guerrero , Michoacán, Sinaloa and Tamaulipas ).

The warning goes into more depth by recommending against travel to certain parts of other states, those “hot zones” within Mexico.   These are pocket areas or specific cities within Mexican states.

You will find more infographics at Statista

What Can We Take Away From All These Reports? Mexico has been fighting their drug wars for many years now and their efforts have resulted in taking down some major cartel king pins, but the resulting vacuum seems to have led to more violence between cartels. However, in Mexico, the risks are different for a business trip to Mexico City, seeking white sandy beaches in Holbox, Cancun, Todos Santos, Tulum or visiting family across the border.  The statistics prove this out and in broad terms, murder rates in most states of Mexico are lower than most states in the US.

First of all, no matter where you travel in a foreign country, use the same COMMON SENSE you have at home and avoid bad neighborhoods, especially at night, and don’t associate with bad people or buy drugs.

Believe it or not, most Mexican people read the same headlines we do in dismay and disgust! Most Mexicans are not drug lords or members of the cartels. Most Mexicans are very family oriented and have a strong sense of community and religion. They strive to live in the safest places in Mexico, just like us expats do.

So, is Mexico dangerous?

Well, the obvious solution is choose to visit and live in a place that is safe! Mexico is a large country, about the same size of the US. There are thousands of miles to explore. All the locations we recommend are deemed to be safe by any standard and of course are safe according to the US State Department. Border zones, cartel hot spots and dark roads at night in Mexico are to be avoided.  Just like wherever you are from, you stay away from the known areas that are dangerous. There are bad people in every country in the world,  seek out the good people and good places and be very happy living in Mexico along with 1 million + other Americans and Canadians. Check out this article from the BBC for a detailed report.

Historical Homicide Data For Mexico

We take safety seriously here, there is no joking around when it comes to murder and violent crime. Mexico, as a country, is taking it seriously as well.

We bring attention to the statistical facts about the murder rates in Mexico, both for Mexican Nationals and U.S. citizens.  The overall rates from 2015-2018 within Mexico are shown in the chart at the bottom of this page.

For those of us who live in Mexico, the emphasis in the U.S. press on how violent and murderous Mexico reflects a total lack of context, when compared to the reality of violent crimes and murder in the U.S. is unfair at best. Statistically speaking, when you are focusing on overall violet crimes,  Mexico is safe, moreso than the U.S. statistically!

If you want to compare U.S. and Mexico Crime Statistics in more detail you can check this link: https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Mexico/United-States/Crime#  

The somewhat dated chart below simply demonstrates American deaths in Mexico related to murder rates only. Still valid and relative to compare in 2019. The cited data is discussed further below. Yes, this specific chart and comparison is ONLY pointing out American victims in Mexico. The statistical point here is to show expats, workers from the U.S. and tourists are rarely involved in the overall scary stats about murder in Mexico.

The chart above (click on the chart, or here for a larger version of the chart)  is a summary of statistics taken from the U.S. State Department website for deaths in foreign countries due to unnatural causes for 2010, and the FBI website on U.S. Crime statistics analysis (complete year 2010).  Bear in mind that these numbers include the more than 150,000 Americans who cross the border every day to visit Mexico, not just the ex-pat population and tourists.  Notice that not a single state in the U.S. is in the “baby blue” or “white” category. 

However,  there are 27 states in Mexico within those categories. 

The U.S. State Department reports that 75 Americans of the over 31 million who visited or lived in Mexico in 2016 were murdered, which is a rate of 2.25 of 100,000 visitors.

About the same odds of being struck by lightening in your lifetime.

Oh yes!! The criminal element in Mexico, primarily the drug cartels, have guns – big, bad guns – thanks mostly to the efforts of the U.S. Justice Department.  But, gun ownership is very difficult in Mexico (an extensive and expensive application process), so if you forsake any plans for a career as a mule with the Tijuana or Zeta Drug Cartels, you can forget about seeing guns, at all.  And yes, petty theft is a problem everywhere in Mexico (where there is poverty, there will be petty theft) – but, again compare it with theft in the U.S. (statistics not shown here, but available on the FBI website, link below) where the amount of theft has been in the seven- and eight-digit realm. 

U.S. FBI Violent Crime Stats

Use some common sense regarding your belongings, and you are unlikely to lose that cash, camera or laptop.  Whereas, in the U.S., men in three-piece suits with impressive Wall Street addresses have been known to steal most, sometimes all, of retirement savings.

Let the numbers tell you the real story!

The above statistics reflect the total number of homicides in Mexico from January 2015 to December, 2018.

The following are opinions, arguments, and anecdotes from on-line American ex-pats in Mexico about the latest USSD Travel Warning for Mexico.

From Gary and Donna’s Pictorial Driving Guide to San Carlos, Mexico (http://www.mexicodrivingtips.com/)

Look closely at the data for the northwestern part of Mexico which had 42 Americans killed from all causes (there were at least four suicides) in the last three years combined. Those are the largest tourist areas of Northwest Mexico, excluding Tijuana. In Los Angeles County, there have been 103 murders in the last six months. In 2008, there were 324 homicides in L.A. County. People in Los Angeles would probably say that there are certain unsafe areas to avoid. According to the latest FBI crime statistics, Phoenix, Arizona is the kidnapping capital of the US. People in Phoenix would probably say that there are certain unsafe areas to avoid. People living in Mexico would say the same thing.

For more than a dozen years more than five major US Motor Coach Tour Companies travel the Mexican Copper Canyon route every week with around 40 older/retiree passengers per coach. They travel through Nogales to San Carlos, then through the Copper Canyon, then up through Chihuahua and Juarez. There is even one company that travels exclusively from El Paso/Juarez to the Canyon and back; the areas covered by news reports. That’s over 7000 tourists per year. In all those years, including 2009, there has not been one incidence of drug-related violence against any of them.

Recent FBI statistics show the murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Baltimore is 43.3, Washington DC is 29.1, and Detroit is 47.

Mexico, which suffered an especially violent year in 2008, recorded a murder rate of about 10 per 100,000 inhabitants. Life is, statistically, far more dangerous north of the border.

From Douglas Anthony Cooper’s article for the Huffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/douglas-anthony-cooper/canada-attack-resort_b_1232486.html?just_reloaded=1)

Cooper, who lives in Mexico, shares his observations about living in “dangerous, murderous” Mexico.

. . . People ask me, regularly, how they can travel safely to Mexico. Here I have impeccable advice: follow this, and you’re pretty much guaranteed to keep your head. Taking notes? Good.

Do not, under any circumstances, take a job with a major drug cartel. Just say no. You do not want to be a hit man, or a mule, or even middle management — that’s how people get killed.

I mean it: that is how people get killed. Sunbathing, on the other hand, is oddly uneventful. Yes, there are a few places in Mexico that I would avoid, . . . Most border towns are not the destination of choice, except I suppose when brothel-hopping, in which case I’m told a soupçon of danger is bracing (and well-deserved).

. . . The San Francisco Chronicle has a useful list of places to avoid — mostly areas on the American border, and south along the Pacific Coast to the state of Guerrero. The Washington Post has another useful list: they add to this the entire state of Veracruz (which is very sad — it’s lovely). These two guides will steer you clear of all the places you have been reading about, including the very few resort towns that have become dangerous: Mazatlán, for instance, and Acapulco.

Again, however, this is a tiny part of Mexico. “Of 2,500 municipalities (what we call counties), only 80, or fewer than five per cent, have been affected by the drug war.”

Mexico’s homicide rate as a nation isn’t even world-class. The country is in fact something of a sissy relative to the thugs in the neighborhood. Before avoiding Mexico, cross the following nations off your list: Honduras, El Salvador, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Venezuela, Jamaica, Belize, Guatemala, Bahamas, Columbia, South Africa, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil… ah, but I’m boring you. I shouldn’t be: All of these countries — and this is only half the list — are murderfests relative to Mexico. Some of these places are worse than Miami.

. . . You know how Los Angeles doesn’t have a whole lot in common with an Amish community in Pennsylvania? Well, multiply that difference a thousand-fold when comparing Ciudad Juarez (a genuinely dangerous place) to a Maya village in the state of Yucatán. In fact, you are quite a bit safer in this state — which includes the ruins of Chichen Itza and Uxmal — than you are in Canada. The national homicide rate in Canada is 1.85 victims per 100,000. Sorry, kids, but that’s a war zone relative to Yucatán: .5 in 100,000.

. . . The truth is that most of Canada is almost as safe as Yucatán.

“Bad press” is the name of the game for Mexico. The U.S. State Department  travel “warning” begins with this caveat…

“Millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year for study, tourism, and business, including more than 150,000 who cross the border every day.  The Mexican government makes a considerable effort to protect U.S. citizens and other visitors to major tourist destinations, and there is no evidence that Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) have targeted U.S. visitors and residents based on their nationality.”

The dangerous areas, as defined by the warning, are primarily where the drugs are grown, packaged, and transported (i.e., on the west coast and at the border with the US – where the customers are).

Unfortunately, the majority of Americans form their opinions from headlines and not from the facts. The State Department warning lists 13 areas that have “no advisory in effect.”

While the Mexican government is now making a concerted effort (after too many years of “letting it go”) to disenfranchise the drug cartels (and, make no mistake, it is a BIG, costly effort), they have the same problem as Columbia did a couple of decades ago – the cartels are a totally enfranchised part of the economy.

Because of the threat to the American economy presented by Americans taking their income out of the US economy to Mexico’s, the US government is not actively disavowing the “headlines.”  So, in truth, Mexico has a two-fold problem – the violence associated with the drug trade (and the concomitant headlines), and the unacknowledged reluctance on the part of the US government to dissuade visitation/emigration to Mexico.

Mexico, unlike Columbia, is a convenient neighbor, and a long-time friend, of the United States. And, while there are many cultural and life-style differences, they pale in comparison to those involved with moving a continent away. Here, if Mom gets sick, a grandchild is born, your son gets married, or you want medical care at “home,” you can fly or drive back to deal with it.

But, until the US government has a vested interest in growing Mexico’s economy, or the “drug customers” in the US dry-up, we don’t see the “bad press” changing. And, until the American ability to perceive the whole truth of a situation, the sensationalism of the drug war headlines, and/or the vested interest of our economies change, we will have to continue to make our “life-style” appeal to one family at a time.

It is frustrating but our website, even all Mexican ex-pat websites together, cannot compete with the power of the press, no matter how right we are, or how much we’d like to.

Keep on coming to Mexico! Let friends, family and neighbors know that the surface may appear to be tarnished, but what’s underneath is pure gold.